Category Archives: Predictions

Analysis of a carbon forecast gone wrong: the case of the IPCC FAR

Re-posted from, an article by Alberto Zaragoza Comendador The IPCC’s First Assessment Report (FAR, released in 1990) made forecasts or projections of future concentrations of carbon dioxide that turned out to be too high. From 1990 to 2018, the … Continue reading

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A view of potential future impact of climate change

Among many doom-and-gloom forecasts about the sustainability of the planet; and the risk of an ‘existential crisis’ due to rising temperatures, one scientist has made a simple statement: It’s not as bad as it once looked David Wallace Wells is … Continue reading

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About the Hockey Stick…

One of the primary drivers of concern regarding AGW was Dr Michael Mann’s publication of his famous ‘hockey stick’ graph demonstrating the rapid warming of the planet over recent history. For reasons that aren’t obvious, the graph showed no warming … Continue reading

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Plausible impact of CO2 increase on global temperature

Lewis and Curry (2018) investigated the plausible overall temperature increase that could be attributable to Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW), with a specific focus on radiative forcing and ocean heat uptake. The authors summarise their findings as follows: Using an 1869–82 … Continue reading

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Solar Forcing to be included in CMIP6

The IPCC reports to date have focused on the role of human activity in climate change. For the first time, the next IPCC report (CMIP6, due for release in 2022) will incorporate the impact of solar cycles. Matthes et al. … Continue reading

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Climate models predict too much warming

Dr John Christy from the University of Alabama at Huntsville presented a paper to the UK Parliament. The paper outlines reasons that the computer simulations that are used to predict global warming are failing on a key measure of the … Continue reading

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Climate models underestimate cooling effect of daily cloud cycle

Cloud formation is part of the hydrological cycle. The climate models that scientists use to project future conditions appear to underestimate the cooling effect that clouds have on a daily — and even hourly — basis, particularly over land. A study … Continue reading

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U.N. Predicts Disaster if Global Warming Not Checked

There have been many predictions that there is a disaster looming if nothing is done to address the impact of humans on the climate. This prediction is a case in point. Unfortunately it was given in 1989. It is worth … Continue reading

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Great Lakes – a case study of failed predictions

In 2012, National Geograhic published an article outlining the impact of climate change on the Great Lakes in North America. The article provides details of how the lakes were at almost-record lows, and that the temperatures were warming. The winter … Continue reading

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Another forecast of doom

Time and again we are exposed to another article that tells us how long we, as the human race, have before there will be a cataclysmic disaster. Another such paper was prepared in Australia this week, and reported in global … Continue reading

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