Plausible impact of CO2 increase on global temperature

Lewis and Curry (2018) investigated the plausible overall temperature increase that could be attributable to Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW), with a specific focus on radiative forcing and ocean heat uptake. The authors summarise their findings as follows:

Using an 1869–82 base period and a 2007–16 final period, which are well matched for volcanic activity and influence from internal variability, medians are derived for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 1.50 K (5%–95% range: 1.05–2.45 K) and for transient climate response (TCR) of 1.20 K (5%–95% range: 0.9–1.7 K). These estimates both have much lower upper bounds than those from a predecessor study using AR5 data ending in 2011.

These results imply that high ECS and TCR values derived from a majority of CMIP5 climate models are inconsistent with observed warming during the historical period.

(c) 2018 American Meteorological Society

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