Plausible impact of CO2 increase on global temperature

Lewis and Curry (2018) investigated the plausible overall temperature increase that could be attributable to Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW), with a specific focus on radiative forcing and ocean heat uptake. The authors summarise their findings as follows:

Using an 1869–82 base period and a 2007–16 final period, which are well matched for volcanic activity and influence from internal variability, medians are derived for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 1.50 K (5%–95% range: 1.05–2.45 K) and for transient climate response (TCR) of 1.20 K (5%–95% range: 0.9–1.7 K). These estimates both have much lower upper bounds than those from a predecessor study using AR5 data ending in 2011.

These results imply that high ECS and TCR values derived from a majority of CMIP5 climate models are inconsistent with observed warming during the historical period.

(c) 2018 American Meteorological Society

Spread the love
This entry was posted in Predictions. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *